China will remain India’s most important foreign policy challenge: Pankaj Saran

Former Deputy NSA, Ambassdor Pankaj Saran has warned that China will undoubtedly remain India's most important foreign policy challenge in 2023.

“The fact is that normalcy in the relationship with China in 2023 looks difficult because of the situation on the border and the LAC. There is no doubt that China will remain our most important foreign policy challenge in 2023. India can expect continuation of a tough posture by China externally. The return to normalcy is unlikely. We have just seen the recent incident in Tawang. So, we have to be alert, well prepared and realistic about how much we can do with China and be prepared for all eventualities and scenario,’’ Ambassador Saran cautioned during a fortnightly YouTube show ‘Around the world with Pankaj Saran, to ‘Awaz The Voice.

Responding to a question, Ambassador Saran who is also the Convenor of Nat Strat, a foreign policy think tank, put the onus on China to restore normalcy in the relationship with India. “The primary responsibility to bring the relationship back to normal rests with China and It depends therefore a lot on how the Chinese will behave,’’ he said.

Ambassador Saran said, “ With China, we have reached a stage where our relationship has actually become quite multi-dimensional. We also interact with China on global issues. When we are talking of our relationship with China, these different tracks of our relationship are likely to proceed at different speed.’’

He said that President Xi Jinping will become President in March, 2023 for his third term.  He pointed out that China will also be pre occupied with its internal problems- whether it is economy, COVID or also whether it is now trying to cope with greater American assertiveness on things like technology denial etc.

Ambassador Saran said that India will have opportunities to deal with the Chinese officials and the leadership during the G 20, SCO and BRICS.

Alongside caution, the seasoned diplomat gave a bright projection about India in stepping up efforts to solve the world’s problems. “In terms of diplomacy, I expect that 2023 will see a great Indian push towards trying to become a solution provider to the world’s problems. By this, I mean, first and foremost, a reduction in political and security tensions in the world, getting some semblance back into the international economic, trade and financial order. We also want the civilizational heritage of India ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ (That the world is one family) must be promoted and propagated so that the rest of the world understands that India has a lot to contribute on so many problems that we face- whether it is climate, inequalities, rising debt problems of the poorest of the poor countries or inequalities within countries.’’

Elaborating upon the focus of Indian diplomacy, Ambassador Saran said, “ Indian diplomacy is going to be more active in trying to project and put India on the world map, on the tables that matter to show the world that India can not only be a solution provider but India has a model to share with the world- based on the fundamental, primary values of democracy, of diversity, of pluralism, of peaceful coexistence among people. These are some of the intangible values that have become so important in the world which is heading towards division, towards rival camps and the clouds of war.’’

Asked if there would be any forward movement in the relationship with Pakistan, Ambassador Saran said, “ The neighbourhood is very important, always has been and will continue to be. I don’t expect much in so far as our relationship with Pakistan is concerned. Till such time that there is pursuit of terrorism by Pakistan as a strategic option vis-à-vis India, I doubt whether we can move very much forward. ''

He said, “The Afghanistan Pakistan relationship is also going to deteriorate which will also have its impact on Indian security. We still have to see how the Taliban behaves.''

The senior diplomat said, “I also suspect that Pakistan is going to be very deeply preoccupied in its huge internal problems. What we can hope for is to maintain the ceasefire, ensure they don’t create mischief in J and K and we maintain a modicum of normalcy across the border but beyond that, I don’t see any significant revival of political contacts.’’

To a question on India’s ties with its neighbours, Ambassador Saran, said, “ With regard to the other neighbours, it is an important geography for us. India will continue to push even harder to try and improve its relations with all the other neighbours, to try and enhance our integration and cooperation and to try and help the neighbours in their own national priorities- whether it is Nepal or Sri Lanka or Bangladesh.’’

He also cautioned that Afghanistan is going to be a continuing security challenge. “We still have to see how the Taliban behaves and what happens to the entire cocktail of terrorism and radicalization in Afghanistan. So, that is going to be an area of concern. The Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship is also going to deteriorate which will also have an impact on Indian security.’’

Asked if countries will look up to India at a time when some parts of the world are facing recession, the Nat Strat Convenor, said, “I think, India is the beacon of hope for the global economy. It used to be China but increasingly projections by international agencies such as IMF are uniformly bullish on India. They say that our economic fundamentals are strong. In this dismal scenario, the Indian economy stands out as an economy which is going to do better than almost everyone else. What we should try and do is use this asset of the vastness of the Indian market and the sound economic fundamentals to contribute to the revival of the Indian economy. India is definitely going to be the fastest growing economy.’’

Looking back at 2022, Ambassador Saran said, “ Overall, 2022 was not a good year for the world and just as the world was recovering from the Covid pandemic, India withstood this geopolitical and geo economic turbulence much better than most other countries. Indian diplomacy was working at its maximum energy in 2022, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar. We were handling multiple crisis at the same time.”

Ambassador Saran who has also been India’s envoy to Russia, said that the Ukraine problem is very complex and carries a big burden of history. “What India will continue to do is call for dialogue, diplomacy and peaceful ways to resolve the conflict. The G 20 Presidency will also be used by India to contribute to reduction of tensions. I don’t see India jump into any peace-making, mediation or facilitation between Russia and Ukraine. It will try to create the atmosphere where a breakthrough could or might become possible. ''

Responding to a question on expectations from India’s G 20 Presidency, Ambassador Saran said, “ G 20 is only one part of the overall scenario for 2023. Of course, it is important. We are going to be the President but for us, this year is going to be far bigger than the G 20. The G 20 is one element. There is also the Indian chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. We are also going to have a BRICS summit. There are going to be multiple engagements for India in the coming year. 2023 offers India the opportunity to shape the global agenda, to further advance our economic development, to reduce global and regional tensions and to ensure that the priorities that India has for itself in all international discussions, international organizations and that India’s voice becomes even more important.”

Asked about tangible features of the G 20 events spread over an entire year, the former Deputy NSA, said, “The most important tangible outcome we want from G 20 is how do we ensure that India grows at much faster pace than it has in the past. We want to try and see how we can avoid global recession, mitigate inflationary pressures, enhance our exports to the rest of the world, attract more FDI into India, increase our manufacturing, better educate our people, impart skills, make sure that the rupee holds its value, that we do not have burgeoning trade account deficits. These are some of the real tangible elements that are going to come out of the G 20 Presidency and this is what the Indian Presidency is going to try and do.’’

He said that India will also try to see how we can reform international institutions- whether they are financial, monetary or political so that the voice of the South is better heard. He added that India will also try to prevent disruptions in supply chains- whether it is of food or energy and how G 20 can act to prevent disasters coming out from unmitigated global warming of the planet.’’

Asked about India’s priorities in the event of a global recession, the senior diplomat replied, “The foremost challenge for India will be how to manage our internal affairs. On the external side, we have to work towards preventing the world getting divided and guard against the world going into significant degrees of recession combined with inflation.''

He added, “India has to ensure that we don’t get even more dependent on China. Out trade has grown with China in 2021 and 2022. We have to keep in the mind the unstable neighbourhood. Climate change is going to be a perennial change.’’

He agreed that the rising tech rivalry between the United States and China is a great opportunity for us. “ India should actually aim to become the R & D and services capital of the world. We should aim to set very high standards when it comes to digital transformation of India.’’

Ambassador Saran further said that figures for Foreign Direct Investment into India in the last five-six years have been very high but definitely more needs to be done. He said that the States and districts in India need to do more to attract foreign investment.’’

ALSO READ: Iran must respect plurality of Indian society

Looking back at 2022, Ambassador Saran said, “ Overall, 2022 was not a good year for the world. Just as the world was recovering from the Covid pandemic, India withstood this geopolitical and geo economic turbulence much better than most other countries. We must look at 2023 as a year of hope. We must be determined to meet challenges. “

Tripati Nath